La campaña según The Economist

Argentina's legislative election

Double or quits

May 14th 2009 | BUENOS AIRES
From The Economist print edition

The Kirchners’ electoral gambit

FOR Argentina’s president, Cristina Fernández, and her husband and predecessor, Néstor Kirchner, this year’s election for half the lower house of Congress and one-third of the Senate is no routine mid-term vote. With the economy deteriorating fast, Ms Fernández brought the poll forward from October to June 28th. Mr Kirchner, who is the president of the ruling Peronist party, is himself standing for the lower house in the all-important province of Buenos Aires, which contains two-fifths of the voters. An awkward, aloof figure, he has been out kissing babies and even allowing himself to be interviewed on television. In another unusual step he has packed the party’s lists with more than 40 governors and mayors, plus the odd celebrity, all of whom say they have no intention of taking up their seats (which would be filled by others lower down the list).

All this smacks of a desperate, if cunning, gamble. The Kirchners’ grip on power has slackened since they lost an acrimonious wrangle over taxes on farm exports last year. The IMF reckons the economy will shrink by 1.5% this year. Inflation is running at 19.8%, according to FIEL, a think-tank. And two different groups of opponents are stirring.

The first is a dissident coalition of conservative Peronists. It includes Francisco de Narváez, a wealthy businessman who is standing against Mr Kirchner in Buenos Aires province. He is spending a record sum on advertising, and has hired many of the marketeers who worked for Mr Kirchner in the past. He zips around the poor suburbs of the province in a private jet, trying to impress the mayors who are the vital local cogs in the clientelistic Peronist machine. It is to try to preserve the loyalty of the mayors that Mr Kirchner has made many of them congressional candidates.

The second is the Radical party, the traditional alternative to Peronism but recently much diminished and factionalised. In the past year or so the Radicals have begun to regroup. They are likely to gain ground in many provinces.

Pollsters suggest that Ms Fernández’s government will probably lose its majority in the lower house, though not in the Senate. But by taking such a prominent role in the campaign, Mr Kirchner has raised the stakes. If his list performs strongly, he and his wife will keep their hold on power. If not, they will be hostages of the Peronist right and the opposition.

Repercusiones La Nación:

La campaña en la Argentina, según The Economist

La prestigiosa revista británica publicó una columna sobre el rol de Néstor Kirchner en las próximas elecciones legislativas

Una nota publicada por la prestigiosa revista británica The Economist hace referencia a la estrategia del ex presidente de la Argentina, Néstor Kirchner, en la campaña por las elecciones legislativas, como "un desesperado, aunque astuto, juego".

La revista destaca que "los Kirchner han estado perdiendo poder desde que perdieron una complicada pelea" por las retenciones al campo el año pasado.

"En otra extraña movida, [Néstor Kirchner] llenó la lista con más de 40 gobernadores e intendentes, además de extrañas celebridades, todos ellos diciendo que no tienen intención de asumir sus puestos (que serían reemplazados por quienes les siguen más abajo en las listas)", dice el artículo.

"Todo esto huele a un desesperado, aunque astuto, juego", destaca. Tras describir el panorama económico de la Argentina, diciendo que "el FMI considera que la economía se va a retraer en un 1,5 % este año" y que "la inflación está en 19,8 %, según FIEL", la nota menciona a los dos grandes frentes opositores (el peronismo disidente y el radicalismo).

El artículo concluye con una descripción de lo que considera que será el panorama para el actual Gobierno luego de las elecciones del 28 de junio:

"Si su lista [por la de Néstor Kirchner] se desenvuelve de una manera fuerte, él y su esposa van a continuar manteniendo el poder. Si no, serán rehenes de la derecha peronista y de la oposición".